Bournemouth 2-1 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bournemouth at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Everton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bournemouth and Everton meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bournemouth's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bournemouth at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bournemouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Everton have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Bournemouth. A 0.50 PPG lead over Everton (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for Everton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Bournemouth 0–3 Everton — a Everton win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Everton half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 47% versus Everton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Everton 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.40 xG and Everton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.923 / defence 1.119 | Everton attack 0.705 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.563. Everton's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 66 games and Everton's last 66.

Result probabilities: Bournemouth 40% | Draw 28% | Everton 32%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.51 | Draw 3.60 | Everton 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights