Aston Villa 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aston Villa vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Villa Park plays host to Aston Villa versus Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aston Villa have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aston Villa have posted 2W 3D 5L at Villa Park — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Aston Villa 1W, Burnley 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 50% versus Burnley 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 58% | Burnley 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.24 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 0.934 / defence 1.262 | Burnley attack 0.617 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.339. Data: 36 Aston Villa games / 36 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 41% | Draw 28% | Burnley 31%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Burnley 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aston Villa as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Aston Villa 50% | Burnley 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 41% | Draw 28% | Burnley 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Aston Villa 1.24 / Burnley 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 0.934 / def 1.262 | Burnley attack 0.617 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Burnley kick off?
Aston Villa vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Aston Villa vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Burnley part of?
Aston Villa vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 41% chance of winning, Burnley a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aston Villa and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Aston Villa 1W | Draws 0 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Aston Villa and Burnley in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (0.93) and Burnley's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.62x) against Aston Villa's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.53
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.28
1.04
Burnley xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.04 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aston Villa's recent record stands at 13W 5D 18L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 16L across 36 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Aston Villa against 0.94 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aston Villa have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 2W 7D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aston Villa are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.89 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Burnley in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 13W 5D 18L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Burnley have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Burnley away?
Aston Villa's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 1.22 PPG; Burnley away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Aston Villa or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burnley in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aston Villa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 4, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Burnley?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 56%, Burnley 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Aston Villa) and 39% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 50% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aston Villa vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Aston Villa's recent games and 39% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Aston Villa and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Villa Park, Regular Season - 18, as Aston Villa and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.24 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Burnley attack 0.62 / defence 1.17, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 41% | Draw 28% | Burnley 31%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 58%, Burnley 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.22 PPG, Burnley 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.