Walsall 0-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rochdale at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Walsall vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Walsall host Rochdale at Banks's Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Walsall — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall's home record at Banks's Stadium: 3W 2D 3L from 8 League Two appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Rochdale have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Walsall at 1.50 PPG versus Rochdale's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Walsall trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rochdale trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Walsall 69% and Rochdale 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 56% | Rochdale 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.33 xG and Rochdale 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.033 / defence 1.441 | Rochdale attack 0.993 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.204. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Walsall games / 16 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 28% | Draw 28% | Rochdale 45%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Rochdale 2.22. Rochdale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rochdale at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 88% | Rochdale 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Banks's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 28% | Draw 28% | Rochdale 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Walsall 1.33 / Rochdale 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.033 / def 1.441 | Rochdale attack 0.993 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Rochdale xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Rochdale kick off?
Walsall vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Banks's Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Rochdale?
Walsall 0 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Walsall vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Banks's Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Rochdale part of?
Walsall vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 28% chance of winning, Rochdale a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Walsall and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Rochdale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Walsall and Rochdale in?
Walsall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Rochdale (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Walsall's attack rating (1.03) and Rochdale's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.60
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Walsall xG
Total xG
3.05
1.72
Rochdale xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
5%
20.33
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Walsall and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Walsall and 1.72 for Rochdale, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 5D 6L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rochdale sit at 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.25 PPG, Rochdale on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Walsall's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Rochdale have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Rochdale in 62%.
Last 16 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Rochdale away?
Rochdale's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.38 PPG; Rochdale away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Walsall and Rochdale runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Walsall's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Walsall
1
Draws
2
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Walsall have won 1, Rochdale have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Rochdale 4-2 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Rochdale?
Rochdale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Walsall at 88%, Rochdale at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Walsall and 62% for Rochdale. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Rochdale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Walsall's games and 75% of Rochdale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Walsall vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Walsall's matches and 62% of Rochdale's.
Do Walsall and Rochdale tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Walsall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Banks's Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Walsall and Rochdale drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.33 xG and Rochdale 1.72 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rochdale landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.03 / defence 1.44 against Rochdale attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 28% | Draw 28% | Rochdale 45%, with Rochdale to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 56%, Rochdale 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Rochdale's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.25 PPG, Rochdale 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.