Walsall 2-3 Bradford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Walsall at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Walsall face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bradford travel to Poundland Bescot Stadium to take on Walsall in League Two (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Walsall have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Walsall have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Walsall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bradford stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bradford's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Walsall 1.40 PPG, Bradford 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Walsall, 2 for Bradford and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Walsall 3–1 Bradford — a Walsall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Walsall in-play tendencies (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 59% versus Bradford 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 48% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.31 xG and Bradford 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.021 / defence 0.913 | Bradford attack 0.946 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.331. Data: built from Walsall's last 90 games and Bradford's last 89.
Result probabilities: Walsall 40% | Draw 27% | Bradford 33%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.49 | Draw 3.66 | Bradford 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Walsall 80% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 40% | Draw 27% | Bradford 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Walsall 1.31 / Bradford 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.021 / def 0.913 | Bradford attack 0.946 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Walsall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bradford xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Bradford kick off?
Walsall vs Bradford kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Bradford?
Walsall 2 - 3 Bradford.
Where is Walsall vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Bradford part of?
Walsall vs Bradford is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 40% chance of winning, Bradford a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Walsall and Bradford will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Walsall vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Walsall's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 90 games and Bradford's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.66
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Bradford xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Walsall and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Walsall and 1.15 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 90 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 30W 30D 30L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 37W 27D 26L from 90 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.33 PPG, Bradford on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 45 home games (21W 15D 9L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 19W 10D 16L from their last 45 away games — 1.49 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.28 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Walsall (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Walsall vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Bradford in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 30W 30D 30L in their last 90 games (1.33 PPG), while Bradford have gone 37W 27D 26L in their last 90 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Bradford away?
Walsall's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.73 PPG; Bradford away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Walsall or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bradford in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jan 2025, when Bradford won Bradford 3-0 Walsall.
Walsall's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Walsall
2
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Bradford?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 2, Bradford have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Bradford 3-0 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 58%, Bradford 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Walsall) and 49% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bradford in 36%; Bradford in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Walsall's recent matches and 44% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Walsall and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Walsall's recent games and 49% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Walsall's recent matches and 69% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Walsall 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Walsall 2-3 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.31 xG and Bradford 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bradford outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Bradford attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 90/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 40% | Draw 27% | Bradford 33%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 48%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.33 PPG, Bradford 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 45
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →