Tranmere 4-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tranmere face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tranmere host Stockport County at Prenton Park in League Two (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tranmere stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tranmere at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stockport County — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tranmere 1.60 PPG, Stockport County 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Tranmere's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Tranmere, 2 for Stockport County and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Tranmere 0–2 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tranmere in-play tendencies (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play tendencies (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 36 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 47% versus Stockport County 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 42% | Stockport County 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tranmere surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Stockport County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.39 xG and Stockport County 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 1.073 / defence 1.023 | Stockport County attack 1.408 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.356. Stockport County have an above-average attack rating of 1.408, which lifts their away xG to 1.95. Data: built from Tranmere's last 78 games and Stockport County's last 77.
Result probabilities: Tranmere 27% | Draw 23% | Stockport County 50%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 3.71 | Draw 4.40 | Stockport County 1.99. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tranmere's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tranmere 80% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, matchday 34 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 27% | Draw 23% | Stockport County 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Tranmere 1.39 / Stockport County 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 1.073 / def 1.023 | Stockport County attack 1.408 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Stockport County xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tranmere vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Tranmere vs Stockport County kick off?
Tranmere vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Stockport County?
Tranmere 4 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Tranmere vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Stockport County part of?
Tranmere vs Stockport County is a League Two fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 27% chance of winning, Stockport County a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Tranmere and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tranmere vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Tranmere's attack at 1.07x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tranmere's last 78 games and Stockport County's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
27%
3.71
23%
4.40
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Tranmere xG
Total xG
3.34
1.95
Stockport County xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
26.21
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tranmere vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.95 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tranmere's recent record stands at 26W 17D 35L from 78 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 41W 21D 16L across 78 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tranmere heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tranmere have managed 18W 8D 12L from their last 38 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Tranmere are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stockport County's away record stands at 19W 8D 11L across their last 38 away games, a 1.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tranmere are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.68 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
Tranmere (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tranmere
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Tranmere vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Tranmere and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 26W 17D 35L in their last 78 games (1.22 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 41W 21D 16L in their last 78 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.63 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Stockport County in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Feb 2024, when Tranmere won Tranmere 4-0 Stockport County.
Tranmere's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Tranmere
1
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Tranmere vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Stockport County?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Tranmere have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Tranmere 4-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 47%, Stockport County 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tranmere) and 55% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Tranmere keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tranmere vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tranmere and Stockport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Tranmere's recent matches and 60% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tranmere and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Tranmere's recent games and 55% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Tranmere's recent matches and 68% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tranmere run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Stockport County 4-0 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.39 xG and Stockport County 1.95 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Tranmere beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Stockport County attack 1.41 / defence 0.87, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 27% | Draw 23% | Stockport County 50%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Tranmere win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 42%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Stockport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Tranmere winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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