Swindon Town 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swindon Town face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swindon Town and Gillingham meet at The Nigel Eady County Ground in League Two (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Swindon Town (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Swindon Town have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Swindon Town against 1.20 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Swindon Town, 1 for Gillingham and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2024, ended Swindon Town 2–2 Gillingham — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Swindon Town — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Gillingham — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 70% versus Gillingham 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 68% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.07 xG and Gillingham 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.886 / defence 1.161 | Gillingham attack 0.715 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 59 games and Gillingham's last 59.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 36% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 35%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.81 | Draw 3.35 | Gillingham 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 14 | Venue: The Nigel Eady County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 36% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Swindon Town 1.07 / Gillingham 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.886 / def 1.161 | Gillingham attack 0.715 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gillingham xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Gillingham kick off?
Swindon Town vs Gillingham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Swindon Town vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Gillingham part of?
Swindon Town vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 36% chance of winning, Gillingham a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Swindon Town and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Swindon Town vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (0.89) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.71x) against Swindon Town's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 59 games and Gillingham's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.35
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.12
1.05
Gillingham xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.05 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swindon Town come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 17D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.41 PPG from 59 outings (24W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Swindon Town against 1.41 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Swindon Town's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 2D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.02 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gillingham in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
Swindon Town (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Swindon Town vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 16W 17D 26L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 24W 11D 24L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Gillingham away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.45 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Gillingham in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Swindon Town and Gillingham, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Swindon Town have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
5
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Gillingham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 2, Gillingham have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: Gillingham 0-2 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Gillingham?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 62%, Gillingham 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Swindon Town) and 34% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 34%; Gillingham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 34% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Swindon Town's recent games and 34% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 72% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 14, as Swindon Town and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.07 xG and Gillingham 1.05 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Gillingham attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 36% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 35%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 68%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.10 PPG, Gillingham 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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