Stockport County 0-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League Two, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salford City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 1.30 PPG lead over Salford City (2.70 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 49% versus Salford City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 43% | Salford City 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.86 xG and Salford City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.163 / defence 0.747 | Salford City attack 1.175 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.261. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Stockport County games / 65 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 55% | Draw 23% | Salford City 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Salford City 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 30% | Salford City 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 55% | Draw 23% | Salford City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Stockport County 1.86 / Salford City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.163 / def 0.747 | Salford City attack 1.175 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Salford City xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Salford City kick off?
Stockport County vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Salford City?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Stockport County vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Salford City part of?
Stockport County vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 55% chance of winning, Salford City a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stockport County and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Salford City?
Record (4 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 1 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Salford City in?
Stockport County (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Salford City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.16) and Salford City's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (1.18x) against Stockport County's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.43
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.97
1.11
Salford City xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
28.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.11 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Salford City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stockport County's recent record stands at 36W 16D 15L from 67 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 26L across 67 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Stockport County against 1.48 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 19W 11D 3L from 33 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 16W 4D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.55 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Salford City in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 36W 16D 15L in their last 67 games (1.85 PPG), while Salford City have gone 29W 12D 26L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Salford City away?
Stockport County's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.06 PPG; Salford City away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Salford City in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stockport County
3
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Salford City?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Salford City have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2024, when Salford City 2-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Salford City?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 39%, Salford City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Stockport County) and 58% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stockport County's recent matches and 61% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Stockport County's recent games and 58% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Salford City tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Salford City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 20, as Stockport County and Salford City drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.86 xG and Salford City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Salford City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.16 / defence 0.75 against Salford City attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 55% | Draw 23% | Salford City 22%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 43%, Salford City 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salford City's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.85 PPG, Salford City 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.