Stockport County 1-2 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leyton Orient at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Leyton Orient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 19 as Stockport County welcome Leyton Orient to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 2L across 9 games at Edgeley Park this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Leyton Orient — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Leyton Orient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leyton Orient's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stockport County 1.80 PPG, Leyton Orient 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Leyton Orient trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Leyton Orient 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 50% | Leyton Orient 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 0.98 xG and Leyton Orient 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.991 / defence 0.986 | Leyton Orient attack 1.186 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.040. Data: 18 Stockport County games / 64 Leyton Orient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 29% | Draw 30% | Leyton Orient 41%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Leyton Orient 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leyton Orient as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 44% | Leyton Orient 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 29% | Draw 30% | Leyton Orient 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Stockport County 0.98 / Leyton Orient 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.991 / def 0.986 | Leyton Orient attack 1.186 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Leyton Orient xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Stockport County 1 - 2 Leyton Orient.
Where is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient part of?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 29% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stockport County and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Leyton Orient (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.99) and Leyton Orient's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
29%
3.42
30%
3.38
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.20
1.22
Leyton Orient xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.6 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.22 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Leyton Orient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leyton Orient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Stockport County — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 2.22 points per game from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.56 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Leyton Orient in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Leyton Orient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 13W 3D 2L in their last 18 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Leyton Orient away?
Leyton Orient's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.67 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stockport County
4
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Leyton Orient have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 44%, Leyton Orient 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Stockport County and 22% for Leyton Orient.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Leyton Orient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stockport County's recent matches and 44% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stockport County's recent games and 22% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leyton Orient edge out Stockport County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 0.98 xG and Leyton Orient 1.22 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Leyton Orient attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 29% | Draw 30% | Leyton Orient 41%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Leyton Orient 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.