Stockport County 0-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Gillingham travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stockport County haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Gillingham — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gillingham haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Gillingham have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.70 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Gillingham and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 46% versus Gillingham 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 37% | Gillingham 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.30 xG and Gillingham 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.029 / defence 0.854 | Gillingham attack 0.948 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.087. Data: 46 Stockport County games / 46 Gillingham games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 45% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Gillingham 4.17. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 45% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stockport County 1.30 / Gillingham 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.029 / def 0.854 | Gillingham attack 0.948 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Gillingham xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Gillingham kick off?
Stockport County vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Stockport County 0 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Stockport County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Gillingham part of?
Stockport County vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 45% chance of winning, Gillingham a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stockport County and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Gillingham?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 0W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Gillingham in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.03) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.27
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.18
0.88
Gillingham xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.88 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County's recent record stands at 22W 14D 10L from 46 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. Stockport County haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 19L across 46 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. Gillingham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 11W 9D 2L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gillingham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.78 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Gillingham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Pre-Season
Gillingham
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 22W 14D 10L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Gillingham away?
Stockport County's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.91 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Gillingham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Gillingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stockport County
3
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Gillingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 0, Gillingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when Gillingham 0-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 46%, Gillingham 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Stockport County and 27% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Gillingham in 32%; Gillingham in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stockport County's recent matches and 32% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stockport County's recent games and 27% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Gillingham tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Stockport County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Stockport County 0-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.30 xG and Gillingham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Gillingham attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 45% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 37%, Gillingham 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Gillingham's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Gillingham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.