Stevenage 3-3 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sutton Utd at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sutton Utd travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sutton Utd are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Sutton Utd and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Sutton Utd winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 39% versus Sutton Utd 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Sutton Utd 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.28 xG and Sutton Utd 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.863 / defence 1.208 | Sutton Utd attack 1.056 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.142. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Stevenage games / 23 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 39%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Sutton Utd 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sutton Utd at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 50% | Sutton Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Stevenage 1.28 / Sutton Utd 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.863 / def 1.208 | Sutton Utd attack 1.056 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sutton Utd xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Stevenage vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Stevenage 3 - 3 Sutton Utd.
Where is Stevenage vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Sutton Utd part of?
Stevenage vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 31% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stevenage and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Sutton Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Sutton Utd in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.37
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.73
1.46
Sutton Utd xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.46 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 23 games, going 4W 8D 11L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Stevenage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.52 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 4W 8D 11L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 12W 3D 8L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.27 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2022, when Stevenage won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Sutton Utd 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sutton Utd see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 54%, Sutton Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 46% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 36%; Stevenage have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stevenage's recent matches and 54% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Sutton Utd share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Sutton Utd finished level at 3-3 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.28 xG and Sutton Utd 1.46 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sutton Utd outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Sutton Utd attack 1.06 / defence 1.32, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 31% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 39%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Sutton Utd 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.