Stevenage 1-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newport County at 37%, yet in-form Stevenage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Newport County at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 6W 0D 4L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Newport County have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Newport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Newport County have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Stevenage have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stevenage, 2 for Newport County and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Newport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Newport County in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Newport County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 45% | Newport County 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.18 xG and Newport County 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.047 / defence 0.966 | Newport County attack 1.224 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.034. Newport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Stevenage games / 53 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 28% | Newport County 37%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Newport County 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newport County are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Newport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 28% | Newport County 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Stevenage 1.18 / Newport County 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.047 / def 0.966 | Newport County attack 1.224 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Newport County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Newport County xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Newport County kick off?
Stevenage vs Newport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Newport County?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Newport County.
Where is Stevenage vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Newport County part of?
Stevenage vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 35% chance of winning, Newport County a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stevenage and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Newport County?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Newport County 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Newport County in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Newport County (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.05) and Newport County's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.62
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.40
1.22
Newport County xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.22 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 15D 22L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Newport County's form line: 21W 13D 19L from 53 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Newport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.19 PPG, Newport County on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Newport County have gone 11W 7D 8L from 26 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.43 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Newport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Newport County in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Newport County have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Newport County away?
Stevenage's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.62 PPG; Newport County away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Newport County won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Newport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Newport County have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2023, when Newport County 2-2 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Newport County?
Newport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Newport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 46% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Newport County in 31%; Stevenage have failed to score in 27% of games; Newport County in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Newport County tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Newport County in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Newport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Newport County 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.18 xG and Newport County 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newport County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Newport County attack 1.22 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 35% | Draw 28% | Newport County 37%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 45%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Newport County's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.19 PPG, Newport County 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.