Stevenage 0-4 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forest Green at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Forest Green encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Forest Green meet at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.14 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Forest Green's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games (2.29 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Forest Green have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Forest Green away from home this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Forest Green are the stronger side — 1.15 PPG clear of the hosts (2.29 vs 1.14). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stevenage have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Forest Green in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Forest Green — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 57% versus Forest Green 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 29% | Forest Green 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.91 xG and Forest Green 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.957 / defence 1.002 | Forest Green attack 1.029 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.071. Data: 7 Stevenage games / 7 Forest Green games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 28% | Draw 33% | Forest Green 39%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Forest Green 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 41% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forest Green at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forest Green if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 67% | Forest Green 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Forest Green | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 28% | Draw 33% | Forest Green 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Stevenage 0.91 / Forest Green 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.957 / def 1.002 | Forest Green attack 1.029 / def 1.000 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Forest Green (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Forest Green xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Forest Green kick off?
Stevenage vs Forest Green kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Forest Green?
Stevenage 0 - 4 Forest Green.
Where is Stevenage vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Forest Green part of?
Stevenage vs Forest Green is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 28% chance of winning, Forest Green a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Forest Green the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Stevenage and Forest Green will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Forest Green?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Forest Green in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Forest Green (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Forest Green's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Forest Green's attack (1.03x) against Stevenage's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forest Green Win
28%
3.52
33%
3.03
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.01
1.10
Forest Green xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.10 for Forest Green, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Forest Green?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Forest Green, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 1L across 7 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Forest Green, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forest Green by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Forest Green's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Forest Green
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Forest Green away?
Forest Green's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.67 PPG; Forest Green away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stevenage
0
Draws
2
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Forest Green?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Forest Green have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Forest Green last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2022, when Forest Green 2-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Forest Green?
Forest Green have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Stevenage, 67% for Forest Green — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Stevenage and 67% for Forest Green.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Forest Green in 33%; Forest Green in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Forest Green?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Stevenage's games and 67% of Forest Green's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stevenage vs Forest Green usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Stevenage's recent games and 67% of Forest Green's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Forest Green tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Forest Green in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forest Green run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Stevenage 0-4 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.91 xG and Forest Green 1.10 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Forest Green outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Forest Green attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 28% | Draw 33% | Forest Green 39%, with Forest Green to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 29%, Forest Green 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Forest Green's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Forest Green arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forest Green (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.