Shrewsbury 1-0 Oldham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Oldham at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Oldham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Oldham travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Oldham away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Oldham are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shrewsbury, 0 for Oldham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Oldham trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 46% versus Oldham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 49% | Oldham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.84 xG and Oldham 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.729 / defence 1.128 | Oldham attack 1.189 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.172. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Shrewsbury games / 41 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 20% | Draw 25% | Oldham 55%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Oldham 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Oldham (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 30% | Oldham 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 20% | Draw 25% | Oldham 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Shrewsbury 0.84 / Oldham 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.729 / def 1.128 | Oldham attack 1.189 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Oldham (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Oldham xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Oldham kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Oldham.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Oldham part of?
Shrewsbury vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 20% chance of winning, Oldham a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shrewsbury and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Oldham?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 1 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Oldham in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Oldham (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.73x the league average against Oldham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
20%
4.97
25%
3.95
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.42
1.57
Oldham xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
23.97
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.57 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 12W 7D 22L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Oldham's form line: 17W 14D 10L from 41 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Oldham are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 8W 6D 6L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.27 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Oldham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Oldham in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 12W 7D 22L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Oldham have gone 17W 14D 10L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Oldham away?
Oldham's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.40 PPG; Oldham away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Oldham in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Oldham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
0
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Oldham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Shrewsbury 1-0 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Oldham?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 35%, Oldham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shrewsbury) and 55% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Oldham in 45%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 35% of games; Oldham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 40% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 55% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Oldham tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Oldham in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Oldham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Oldham 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.84 xG and Oldham 1.57 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oldham landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.73 / defence 1.13 against Oldham attack 1.19 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 20% | Draw 25% | Oldham 55%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 49%, Oldham 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Oldham's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.