Rochdale vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rochdale at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rochdale host York at Spotland Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rochdale have posted 3W 0D 2L at Spotland Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Spotland Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York away from home this season: 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rochdale at 1.40 PPG versus York's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
York in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rochdale 50% and York 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 50% | York 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.40 xG and York 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.943 / defence 1.161 | York attack 0.833 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 11 Rochdale games / 10 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 44% | Draw 31% | York 24%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | York 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rochdale at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Rochdale 40% | York 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Spotland Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 44% | Draw 31% | York 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Rochdale 1.40 / York 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.943 / def 1.161 | York attack 0.833 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
0.99
York xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs York kick off?
Rochdale vs York is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Spotland Stadium.
Where is Rochdale vs York being played?
The match is being played at Spotland Stadium.
What competition is Rochdale vs York part of?
Rochdale vs York is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs York?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 44% chance of winning, York a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs York?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rochdale and York will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and York?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rochdale and York in?
Rochdale (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. York (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rochdale's attack rating (0.94) and York's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.21
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
York xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
16.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rochdale and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Rochdale and 0.99 for York, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Rochdale have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York's form line: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 1.40 PPG, York on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rochdale have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Rochdale are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, York have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rochdale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rochdale are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York in 70%.
Defensively: Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
York
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and York in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while York have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or York away?
Rochdale's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.80 PPG; York away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Rochdale or York been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, York in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 40%, York 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rochdale) and 20% (York).
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play York?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Rochdale's games and 80% of York's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rochdale vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rochdale's recent games and 20% of York's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and York tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, York in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.