Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Chesterfield fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vale Park plays host to Port Vale versus Chesterfield in League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale's home record at Vale Park: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Port Vale are significantly better at Vale Park than their overall form suggests.
Chesterfield (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chesterfield, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Chesterfield have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Port Vale, 1.50 for Chesterfield — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Port Vale 1W, Chesterfield 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Chesterfield half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 33% versus Chesterfield 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 35% | Chesterfield 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.06 xG and Chesterfield 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.751 / defence 0.830 | Chesterfield attack 1.107 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.024. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Port Vale games / 56 Chesterfield games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 35% | Chesterfield 30%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Chesterfield 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 10% | Chesterfield 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 35% | Chesterfield 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Port Vale 1.06 / Chesterfield 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.751 / def 0.830 | Chesterfield attack 1.107 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Chesterfield xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Chesterfield kick off?
Port Vale vs Chesterfield kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Port Vale 1 - 0 Chesterfield.
Where is Port Vale vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Chesterfield part of?
Port Vale vs Chesterfield is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 36% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Port Vale and Chesterfield will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Chesterfield?
Record (2 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 1 | Chesterfield 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Chesterfield in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Chesterfield's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Chesterfield's attack (1.11x) against Port Vale's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 8/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
36%
2.79
35%
2.89
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.00
0.94
Chesterfield xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.94 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Port Vale have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 12W 14D 28L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chesterfield's form line: 22W 20D 12L from 54 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Chesterfield is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chesterfield are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port Vale.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (6W 11D 10L).
On the road, Chesterfield have gone 11W 10D 6L from 27 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chesterfield in 61%.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Chesterfield
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 22W 20D 12L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Chesterfield away?
Chesterfield's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.07 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chesterfield — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
0
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Chesterfield?
From 3 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Chesterfield have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Chesterfield last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Chesterfield?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 33%, Chesterfield 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Port Vale) and 48% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Chesterfield?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Port Vale's recent matches and 67% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Chesterfield usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Port Vale's recent games and 48% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Chesterfield tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Chesterfield in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Chesterfield 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Chesterfield 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.06 xG and Chesterfield 0.94 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chesterfield landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 0.83 against Chesterfield attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 36% | Draw 35% | Chesterfield 30%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 35%, Chesterfield 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Chesterfield's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Port Vale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.