Oldham 1-3 Scunthorpe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Scunthorpe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Scunthorpe travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Boundary Park this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Scunthorpe have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Scunthorpe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Scunthorpe have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oldham 0.80 PPG, Scunthorpe 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Oldham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Scunthorpe in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Oldham trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Scunthorpe trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 48% versus Scunthorpe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 62% | Scunthorpe 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.90 xG and Scunthorpe 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.168 / defence 1.658 | Scunthorpe attack 0.673 / defence 1.504. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.149. Scunthorpe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.504 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Oldham games / 21 Scunthorpe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 50% | Draw 26% | Scunthorpe 24%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Scunthorpe 4.17. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 60% | Scunthorpe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Scunthorpe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 50% | Draw 26% | Scunthorpe 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Oldham 1.90 / Scunthorpe 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.168 / def 1.658 | Scunthorpe attack 0.673 / def 1.504 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Oldham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Scunthorpe xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Scunthorpe kick off?
Oldham vs Scunthorpe kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Scunthorpe?
Oldham 1 - 3 Scunthorpe.
Where is Oldham vs Scunthorpe being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Scunthorpe part of?
Oldham vs Scunthorpe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Scunthorpe?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 50% chance of winning, Scunthorpe a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Scunthorpe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Oldham and Scunthorpe will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Scunthorpe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Scunthorpe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Scunthorpe in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oldham's attack rating (1.17) and Scunthorpe's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Scunthorpe's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.92
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Oldham xG
Total xG
3.18
1.28
Scunthorpe xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
4%
27.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Scunthorpe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Oldham and Scunthorpe expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Oldham and 1.28 for Scunthorpe, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Scunthorpe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 4D 13L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Scunthorpe sit at 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (2W 10D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Scunthorpe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 0.76 PPG, Scunthorpe on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oldham's home form reads 2W 2D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Scunthorpe have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (0W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Scunthorpe are on 0.76 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Scunthorpe in 62%.
Last 21 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Scunthorpe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Scunthorpe in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 4W 4D 13L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Scunthorpe have gone 2W 10D 9L in their last 21 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Scunthorpe away?
Oldham's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.73 PPG; Scunthorpe away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oldham
0
Draws
1
Scunthorpe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Scunthorpe?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Scunthorpe have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Scunthorpe last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Scunthorpe 0-1 Oldham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 54%, Scunthorpe 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Oldham) and 46% (Scunthorpe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 36% of games; Scunthorpe in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Scunthorpe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Scunthorpe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Oldham's games and 64% of Scunthorpe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oldham vs Scunthorpe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Oldham's matches and 46% of Scunthorpe's.
Do Oldham and Scunthorpe tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Scunthorpe in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Scunthorpe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Oldham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Scunthorpe beat Oldham 1-3 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.90 xG and Scunthorpe 1.28 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oldham fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Scunthorpe outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.17 / defence 1.66 against Scunthorpe attack 0.67 / defence 1.50, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 50% | Draw 26% | Scunthorpe 24%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Scunthorpe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 62%, Scunthorpe 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Scunthorpe's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 0.76 PPG, Scunthorpe 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Scunthorpe win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Scunthorpe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.