Notts County 2-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 29 as Notts County welcome Swindon Town to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 6W 2D 2L at Meadow Lane — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Meadow Lane.
Swindon Town — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Notts County 1.70 PPG, Swindon Town 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Notts County, 1 for Swindon Town and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Swindon Town trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 51% versus Swindon Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 46% | Swindon Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.26 xG and Swindon Town 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.080 / defence 0.874 | Swindon Town attack 1.120 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.239. Data: 72 Notts County games / 72 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 37% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Swindon Town 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 40% | Swindon Town 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 37% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Notts County 1.26 / Swindon Town 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.080 / def 0.874 | Swindon Town attack 1.120 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Notts County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Swindon Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Swindon Town kick off?
Notts County vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Notts County 2 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Notts County vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Swindon Town part of?
Notts County vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 37% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Notts County and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Swindon Town?
Record (5 meetings): Notts County 3W | Draws 1 | Swindon Town 1W.
What form are Notts County and Swindon Town in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Swindon Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.08) and Swindon Town's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.68
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.47
1.21
Swindon Town xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Notts County and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Notts County and 1.21 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County come into this having played 72 games, going 33W 16D 23L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swindon Town sit at 1.50 PPG from 72 outings (29W 21D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.60 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Notts County's home form reads 17W 7D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Swindon Town have taken 1.36 points per game from 36 outings (13W 10D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.57 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 33W 16D 23L in their last 72 games (1.60 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 29W 21D 22L in their last 72 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Swindon Town away?
Notts County's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.61 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Notts County or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and Swindon Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Notts County's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Swindon Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Swindon Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Notts County 2-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Swindon Town?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 47%, Swindon Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Notts County) and 56% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Swindon Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Notts County's recent matches and 58% of Swindon Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Notts County's recent games and 56% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Swindon Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Swindon Town 2-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.26 xG and Swindon Town 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Swindon Town attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 37% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 35%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 46%, Swindon Town 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Swindon Town's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.60 PPG, Swindon Town 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.