Notts County 3-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Notts County at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Newport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 42 sees Newport County travel to Meadow Lane to take on Notts County. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Notts County have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 6W 1D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newport County — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Newport County's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.30 (Newport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Notts County have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Newport County have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Notts County a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Newport County trading profile (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Newport County 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 49% | Newport County 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 2.12 xG and Newport County 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.393 / defence 0.997 | Newport County attack 0.917 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 87 Notts County games / 87 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 62% | Draw 20% | Newport County 18%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Newport County 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 40% | Newport County 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 62% | Draw 20% | Newport County 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Notts County 2.12 / Newport County 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.393 / def 0.997 | Newport County attack 0.917 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Notts County (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Newport County xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Newport County kick off?
Notts County vs Newport County kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Newport County?
Notts County 3 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Notts County vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Newport County part of?
Notts County vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 62% chance of winning, Newport County a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Notts County and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Newport County?
Record (5 meetings): Notts County 3W | Draws 2 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Notts County and Newport County in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Newport County (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.39) and Newport County's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
62%
1.62
20%
4.93
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Notts County xG
Total xG
3.18
1.06
Newport County xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
45.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Notts County and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Notts County and 1.06 for Newport County, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 87 games, going 42W 17D 28L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Newport County sit at 0.95 PPG from 87 outings (22W 17D 48L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Newport County — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 22W 7D 14L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Newport County have taken 0.74 points per game from 43 outings (8W 8D 27L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.06 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Newport County in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 42W 17D 28L in their last 87 games (1.64 PPG), while Newport County have gone 22W 17D 48L in their last 87 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Newport County away?
Notts County's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.70 PPG; Newport County away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Notts County or Newport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Newport County in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2023, when Notts County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Notts County's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
2
Draws
0
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Newport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Newport County have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Notts County 3-1 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Newport County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 49%, Newport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Notts County) and 58% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Newport County in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Notts County's recent matches and 46% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Notts County's recent games and 58% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Newport County tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Newport County in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Newport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Newport County 3-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.12 xG and Newport County 1.06 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.39 / defence 1.00 against Newport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 62% | Draw 20% | Newport County 18%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Newport County's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.