Notts County 0-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 7 as Notts County welcome Gillingham to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Notts County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 4W 2D 4L at Meadow Lane — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Meadow Lane this season.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.70 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Notts County, 1 for Gillingham and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Gillingham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Gillingham trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 69% versus Gillingham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 73% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Gillingham 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.247 / defence 1.076 | Gillingham attack 0.758 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.183. Gillingham's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Notts County games / 52 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 48% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 25%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Gillingham 4.00. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 48% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Notts County 1.44 / Gillingham 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.247 / def 1.076 | Gillingham attack 0.758 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Notts County (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gillingham xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Gillingham kick off?
Notts County vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Gillingham?
Notts County 0 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Notts County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Gillingham part of?
Notts County vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 48% chance of winning, Gillingham a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Notts County and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Gillingham?
Record (2 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 1W.
What form are Notts County and Gillingham in?
Notts County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Gillingham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.25) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.76
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.41
0.96
Gillingham xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Notts County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 0.96 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 9D 21L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.48 PPG from 52 outings (22W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.44 PPG, Gillingham on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 14W 3D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (10W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.06 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gillingham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 22W 9D 21L in their last 52 games (1.44 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 22W 11D 19L in their last 52 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Gillingham away?
Notts County's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.73 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Notts County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Gillingham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Notts County's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Gillingham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Notts County 1-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 69%, Gillingham 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 81% (Notts County) and 35% (Gillingham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 35%; Gillingham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Notts County's recent matches and 35% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Notts County's matches and 35% of Gillingham's.
Do Notts County and Gillingham tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Notts County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Notts County 0-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Gillingham 0.96 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Notts County fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.25 / defence 1.08 against Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 48% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 25%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 73%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.44 PPG, Gillingham 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.