Northampton 1-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Newport County in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Newport County (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Newport County's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Northampton, 0 for Newport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Northampton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Northampton — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Newport County — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 39% versus Newport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 36% | Newport County 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.18 xG and Newport County 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.895 / defence 0.873 | Newport County attack 0.904 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.111. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Northampton games / 29 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 40% | Draw 35% | Newport County 25%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Newport County 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 20% | Newport County 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 40% | Draw 35% | Newport County 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Northampton 1.18 / Newport County 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.895 / def 0.873 | Newport County attack 0.904 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Northampton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Newport County xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Newport County kick off?
Northampton vs Newport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Newport County?
Northampton 1 - 0 Newport County.
Where is Northampton vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Newport County part of?
Northampton vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 40% chance of winning, Newport County a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Northampton and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Newport County?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 0 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Northampton and Newport County in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Newport County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.90) and Newport County's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newport County's attack (0.90x) against Northampton's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
40%
2.49
35%
2.84
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.05
0.88
Newport County xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Northampton and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Northampton and 0.88 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 14W 6D 8L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Newport County's form line: 12W 8D 8L from 28 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Northampton against 1.57 for Newport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L).
On the road, Newport County have gone 5W 5D 4L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.61 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Newport County in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 14W 6D 8L in their last 28 games (1.71 PPG), while Newport County have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Newport County away?
Northampton's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.86 PPG; Newport County away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Northampton or Newport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Newport County in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newport County won 3-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Newport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Northampton
1
Draws
1
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Newport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Newport County have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Newport County 3-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Newport County?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 29%, Newport County 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Northampton) and 57% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Northampton's recent matches and 57% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Northampton's recent games and 57% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Newport County tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Newport County in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Newport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Newport County 1-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.18 xG and Newport County 0.88 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newport County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Newport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 40% | Draw 35% | Newport County 25%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 36%, Newport County 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Newport County's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.71 PPG, Newport County 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.