Northampton 0-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Northampton and Bradford meet at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Northampton's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bradford have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bradford have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Northampton's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bradford's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Northampton have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Bradford in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Northampton, 0 for Bradford and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Northampton — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Bradford — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 38% versus Bradford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 35% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.16 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.050 / defence 0.902 | Bradford attack 0.838 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.099. Data: 40 Northampton games / 40 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 43% | Draw 32% | Bradford 25%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Bradford 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Bradford 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 43% | Draw 32% | Bradford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Northampton 1.16 / Bradford 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.050 / def 0.902 | Bradford attack 0.838 / def 1.111 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Northampton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Bradford xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Bradford kick off?
Northampton vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Bradford?
Northampton 0 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Northampton vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Bradford part of?
Northampton vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 43% chance of winning, Bradford a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Northampton and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bradford?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 1 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Northampton and Bradford in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Bradford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Northampton's attack at 1.05x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.84x) against Northampton's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.11
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.99
0.83
Bradford xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Northampton and 0.83 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton's recent record stands at 19W 9D 12L from 40 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 15L across 40 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Northampton by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bradford heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 12W 3D 5L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.10 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 60%.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Bradford in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Bradford have gone 11W 14D 15L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Bradford away?
Northampton's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.95 PPG; Bradford away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Northampton or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bradford in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Northampton
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 30%, Bradford 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Northampton and 35% for Bradford.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bradford in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Northampton's recent matches and 45% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Northampton's recent games and 35% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Bradford tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bradford in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Northampton and Bradford drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.16 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Bradford attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 43% | Draw 32% | Bradford 25%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 35%, Bradford 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.