Northampton 0-1 Barrow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Barrow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Barrow in League Two, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Northampton's overall League Two record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Barrow have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barrow's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Northampton's favour (1.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Northampton half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Barrow half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 42% versus Barrow 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 38% | Barrow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.16 xG and Barrow 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.963 / defence 0.832 | Barrow attack 0.761 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.132. Data: 26 Northampton games / 27 Barrow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 36% | Barrow 20%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | Barrow 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Barrow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Barrow | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 36% | Barrow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Northampton 1.16 / Barrow 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.963 / def 0.832 | Barrow attack 0.761 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Northampton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Barrow xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Barrow kick off?
Northampton vs Barrow kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Barrow?
Northampton 0 - 1 Barrow.
Where is Northampton vs Barrow being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Barrow part of?
Northampton vs Barrow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Barrow?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 44% chance of winning, Barrow a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Barrow?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Barrow will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Barrow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Barrow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Barrow in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Barrow (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Barrow's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Barrow's attack (0.76x) against Northampton's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.28
36%
2.78
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.88
0.72
Barrow xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Barrow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Northampton and Barrow expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Northampton and 0.72 for Barrow, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Barrow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 26 games, going 13W 6D 7L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Barrow sit at 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (6W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Barrow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Barrow have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Barrow are on 1.04 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Barrow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Barrow in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Barrow have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Barrow away?
Northampton's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.92 PPG; Barrow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Northampton or Barrow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Barrow in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Northampton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Barrow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Northampton
0
Draws
1
Barrow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Barrow?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Barrow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Barrow last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Barrow 0-2 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Barrow?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 33%, Barrow 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Northampton) and 42% (Barrow).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Barrow in 33%; Barrow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Barrow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Barrow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Northampton's recent matches and 42% of Barrow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Barrow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Northampton's recent games and 42% of Barrow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Barrow tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Barrow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Barrow defy the odds to beat Northampton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barrow beat Northampton 0-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.16 xG and Barrow 0.72 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Northampton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Barrow attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 36% | Barrow 20%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Barrow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 38%, Barrow 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Barrow's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Barrow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Barrow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.