Mansfield Town 1-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Crewe travel to One Call Stadium to take on Mansfield Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crewe — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mansfield Town) versus 1.20 (Crewe). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mansfield Town, 0 for Crewe and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 55% versus Crewe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 54% | Crewe 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.69 xG and Crewe 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.191 / defence 1.261 | Crewe attack 0.621 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.116. Data: 71 Mansfield Town games / 23 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 57% | Draw 24% | Crewe 19%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Crewe 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mansfield Town 80% | Crewe 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 57% | Draw 24% | Crewe 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Mansfield Town 1.69 / Crewe 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.191 / def 1.261 | Crewe attack 0.621 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Crewe xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Crewe kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Mansfield Town 1 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Crewe part of?
Mansfield Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 57% chance of winning, Crewe a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mansfield Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): Mansfield Town 1W | Draws 0 | Crewe 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Crewe in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Crewe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (1.19) and Crewe's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.16
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.56
0.87
Crewe xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
4%
27.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.87 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 33W 15D 21L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe's form line: 14W 16D 39L from 69 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.97 PPG from 33 outings (19W 8D 6L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 4W 7D 22L from 33 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.81 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 69 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 33W 15D 21L in their last 69 games (1.65 PPG), while Crewe have gone 14W 16D 39L in their last 69 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Crewe away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.97 PPG; Crewe away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crewe in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Crewe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mansfield Town
2
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crewe?
From 4 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 1, Crewe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 61%, Crewe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mansfield Town) and 42% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crewe in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 46% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 42% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crewe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town and Crewe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town and Crewe finished level at 1-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.69 xG and Crewe 0.87 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.19 / defence 1.26 against Crewe attack 0.62 / defence 1.20, drawn from 71/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 57% | Draw 24% | Crewe 19%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 54%, Crewe 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crewe's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.