Harrogate Town 1-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Notts County at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Harrogate Town face Notts County.

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Full Analysis

Exercise Stadium plays host to Harrogate Town versus Notts County in League Two (matchday 45). Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Harrogate Town have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Harrogate Town have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Harrogate Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Notts County's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Notts County have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Harrogate Town against 1.10 for Notts County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Notts County edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Harrogate Town 0–1 Notts County — a Notts County win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Harrogate Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 33 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 49% versus Notts County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 46% | Notts County 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.27 xG and Notts County 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 1.054 / defence 1.039 | Notts County attack 1.177 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.135. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 90 games and Notts County's last 90.

Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 33% | Draw 27% | Notts County 39%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 2.99 | Draw 3.64 | Notts County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 40% (last 10 away games).

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