Crewe 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crewe at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crewe face Crawley Town.

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Fixture Analysis

Crewe welcome Crawley Town to Mornflake Stadium in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Crewe — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Crewe have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Crewe) versus 1.20 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Crewe have won 2, Crawley Town 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Crewe 4–2 Crawley Town — a Crewe win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Crewe in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Crawley Town in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 53% versus Crawley Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 49% | Crawley Town 55%). Note also that Crawley Town surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Crewe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.93 xG and Crawley Town 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.124 / defence 1.124 | Crawley Town attack 1.040 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Data: built from Crewe's last 76 games and Crawley Town's last 74.

Result probabilities: Crewe 46% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.18 | Draw 4.29 | Crawley Town 3.26. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crewe's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crewe 50% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 60% (last 10 away games).

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