Crawley Town 2-2 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Oldham travel to The People's Pension Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town at The People's Pension Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The People's Pension Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Oldham away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.50 PPG versus Oldham's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Oldham in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 68% versus Oldham 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Oldham 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.23 xG and Oldham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.962 / defence 1.330 | Oldham attack 0.703 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.117. Oldham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Crawley Town games / 31 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 33% | Oldham 29%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Oldham 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 70% | Oldham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 33% | Oldham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Crawley Town 1.23 / Oldham 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.962 / def 1.330 | Oldham attack 0.703 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Oldham xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Oldham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Oldham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Crawley Town 2 - 2 Oldham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Oldham part of?
Crawley Town vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 38% chance of winning, Oldham a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crawley Town and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Oldham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Oldham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Oldham (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.96) and Oldham's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
38%
2.61
33%
3.05
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.27
1.04
Oldham xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.04 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 12W 7D 12L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Oldham's form line: 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Crawley Town are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oldham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Oldham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Oldham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Oldham have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Oldham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.27 PPG; Oldham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Oldham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town's record when hosting Oldham specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
3
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Oldham?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Oldham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Oldham?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 73%, Oldham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Oldham in 40%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Oldham in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 33% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Crawley Town's recent games and 40% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Oldham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Oldham in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Oldham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Oldham finished level at 2-2 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.23 xG and Oldham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oldham outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Oldham attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 38% | Draw 33% | Oldham 29%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Oldham 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Oldham's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.