Crawley Town vs Chesterfield – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Chesterfield fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 10 as Crawley Town welcome Chesterfield to The Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chesterfield — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chesterfield have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chesterfield's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chesterfield are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Chesterfield and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chesterfield trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 46% versus Chesterfield 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 42% | Chesterfield 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.86 xG and Chesterfield 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.683 / defence 1.083 | Chesterfield attack 1.025 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Crawley Town games / 50 Chesterfield games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 24% | Draw 32% | Chesterfield 43%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Chesterfield 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 30% | Chesterfield 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 24% | Draw 32% | Chesterfield 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Crawley Town 0.86 / Chesterfield 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.683 / def 1.083 | Chesterfield attack 1.025 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Chesterfield xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Chesterfield kick off?
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Chesterfield part of?
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 24% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Crawley Town and Chesterfield will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Chesterfield?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 2 | Chesterfield 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Chesterfield in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.68x the league average against Chesterfield's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
24%
4.09
32%
3.12
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.09
1.23
Chesterfield xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.2 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.23 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 9W 17D 24L from 50 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 12L across 50 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chesterfield, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chesterfield by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 5W 10D 10L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chesterfield's away record stands at 10W 9D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.42 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chesterfield in 60%.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Chesterfield
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 20W 18D 12L in their last 50 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Chesterfield away?
Chesterfield's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.00 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Chesterfield?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Chesterfield have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Chesterfield last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Crawley Town 1-1 Chesterfield.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 52%, Chesterfield 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Crawley Town) and 44% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Chesterfield?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Crawley Town's games and 64% of Chesterfield's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Chesterfield usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Crawley Town's recent games and 44% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Chesterfield tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Chesterfield in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.