Crawley Town 1-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees AFC Wimbledon travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.00 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, AFC Wimbledon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus AFC Wimbledon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | AFC Wimbledon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.29 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.105 / defence 1.137 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.793 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.272. AFC Wimbledon's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Crawley Town games / 67 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | AFC Wimbledon 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 70% | AFC Wimbledon 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Crawley Town 1.29 / AFC Wimbledon 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.105 / def 1.137 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.793 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.15
AFC Wimbledon xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 December 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Crawley Town 1 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 39% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.10x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.39
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.15 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 67 games, going 20W 16D 31L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.19 PPG from 67 outings (19W 23D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.13 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 16W 7D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.09 points per game from 34 outings (8W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.21 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 67 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 20W 16D 31L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 19W 23D 25L in their last 67 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.62 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 59%, AFC Wimbledon 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 47% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 41%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 47% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 47% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Crawley Town 1-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.29 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.10 / defence 1.14 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.79 / defence 0.76, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 39% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, AFC Wimbledon 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.13 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.