Colchester 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 17 as Colchester welcome Stevenage to JobServe Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Colchester — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester at JobServe Community Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Colchester are significantly better at JobServe Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stevenage — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Colchester register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stevenage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Colchester, 2 for Stevenage and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Colchester in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 49% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 41% | Stevenage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.05 xG and Stevenage 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.900 / defence 1.137 | Stevenage attack 0.988 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.043. Data: 61 Colchester games / 62 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 32% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 38%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Stevenage 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Colchester 60% | Stevenage 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 32% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Colchester 1.05 / Stevenage 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.900 / def 1.137 | Stevenage attack 0.988 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stevenage xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Stevenage kick off?
Colchester vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Stevenage?
Colchester 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Colchester vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Stevenage part of?
Colchester vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 32% chance of winning, Stevenage a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Colchester and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Colchester and Stevenage in?
Colchester (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Colchester's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
32%
3.11
29%
3.41
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.22
1.17
Stevenage xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Colchester and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Colchester and 1.17 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester's recent record stands at 16W 17D 28L from 61 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 24L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.07 PPG, Stevenage on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Colchester have managed 8W 12D 11L from 31 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 6W 10D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.10 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 16W 17D 28L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 21W 16D 24L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Stevenage away?
Colchester's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.16 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Colchester's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Colchester
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Colchester have won 0, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Stevenage 1-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 58%, Stevenage 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Colchester) and 45% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 26% of games; Stevenage in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Colchester's recent matches and 45% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Colchester's recent games and 45% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Stevenage tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colchester and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Colchester and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.05 xG and Stevenage 1.17 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Stevenage attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 32% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 38%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 41%, Stevenage 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.07 PPG, Stevenage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.