Colchester 0-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Colchester take on Salford City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 10 as Colchester welcome Salford City to JobServe Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester at JobServe Community Stadium this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.25 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at JobServe Community Stadium this season.
Salford City — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 League Two fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.25 PPG (Colchester) versus 1.00 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Salford City trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 50% versus Salford City 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Colchester 25% | Salford City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 0.92 xG and Salford City 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.694 / defence 1.173 | Salford City attack 0.751 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 1.050. Colchester's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salford City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Colchester games / 9 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 31% | Draw 37% | Salford City 31%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Salford City 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 33% | Salford City 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 31% | Draw 37% | Salford City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Colchester 0.92 / Salford City 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.694 / def 1.173 | Salford City attack 0.751 / def 1.443 | league avg home 0.919 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Salford City xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Salford City kick off?
Colchester vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Colchester 0 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Colchester vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Salford City part of?
Colchester vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 31% chance of winning, Salford City a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Colchester and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colchester and Salford City in?
Colchester (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Salford City (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.69x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
37%
2.68
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Colchester xG
Total xG
1.85
0.93
Salford City xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Colchester and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Colchester and 0.93 for Salford City, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 4D 2L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.25 PPG, Salford City on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colchester's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salford City's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Salford City in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Salford City have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Salford City away?
Colchester's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 0.33 PPG; Salford City away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Colchester or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Salford City in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Salford City have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colchester's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Colchester
2
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
From 10 meetings on record, Colchester have won 3, Salford City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 33%, Salford City 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Colchester and 67% for Salford City.
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 67% of games; Salford City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Colchester's recent matches and 67% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Colchester's recent games and 67% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Salford City tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Salford City in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Colchester 0-2 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 0.92 xG and Salford City 0.93 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Colchester fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Salford City outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.69 / defence 1.17 against Salford City attack 0.75 / defence 1.44, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 31% | Draw 37% | Salford City 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 25%, Salford City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.25 PPG, Salford City 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.