Chesterfield vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chesterfield vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Crawley Town travel to SMH Group Stadium to take on Chesterfield. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 April 2027, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chesterfield stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chesterfield have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chesterfield's home record at SMH Group Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Chesterfield have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chesterfield, 0 for Crawley Town and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chesterfield trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 60% versus Crawley Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 44% | Crawley Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.20 xG and Crawley Town 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.881 / defence 0.970 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Data: 50 Chesterfield games / 50 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 37% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Crawley Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Chesterfield 40% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 37% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Chesterfield 1.20 / Crawley Town 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.881 / def 0.970 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Crawley Town xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Crawley Town kick off?
Chesterfield vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 April 2027 at SMH Group Stadium.
Where is Chesterfield vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Crawley Town part of?
Chesterfield vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 37% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chesterfield and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Chesterfield 0W | Draws 2 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Chesterfield and Crawley Town in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (0.88) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.22
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.31
1.11
Crawley Town xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.11 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Chesterfield have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 20W 18D 12L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chesterfield, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town's form line: 9W 17D 24L from 50 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chesterfield are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chesterfield have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (10W 9D 6L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 7D 14L from 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chesterfield are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.94 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chesterfield have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 20W 18D 12L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Crawley Town away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.56 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chesterfield and Crawley Town runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chesterfield
2
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 0, Crawley Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Crawley Town 1-1 Chesterfield.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 56%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chesterfield) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chesterfield vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chesterfield's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.