Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Crawley Town — this Bradford vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Crawley Town travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford in League Two (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bradford stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Bradford have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Crawley Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bradford) versus 1.50 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bradford's games and 60% of Crawley Town's (from Bradford's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Crawley Town have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Bradford.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Bradford 0–1 Crawley Town — a Crawley Town win.
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 51% versus Crawley Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 45% | Crawley Town 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.32 xG and Crawley Town 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.760 / defence 0.830 | Crawley Town attack 0.886 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.298. Bradford's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Data: built from Bradford's last 71 games and Crawley Town's last 71.
Result probabilities: Bradford 45% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.24 | Draw 3.46 | Crawley Town 3.79. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bradford 60% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 27 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 45% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bradford 1.32 / Crawley Town 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.760 / def 0.830 | Crawley Town attack 0.886 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Bradford (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Crawley Town xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Crawley Town kick off?
Bradford vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Bradford 2 - 4 Crawley Town.
Where is Bradford vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Crawley Town part of?
Bradford vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 45% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bradford and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bradford vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.76x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 71 games and Crawley Town's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.46
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.28
0.95
Crawley Town xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bradford and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bradford and 0.95 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 30W 22D 19L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 22W 16D 33L from 71 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 34 home games (14W 14D 6L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 9D 20L from their last 34 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
Bradford (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Bradford vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 30W 22D 19L in their last 71 games (1.58 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 22W 16D 33L in their last 71 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Crawley Town away?
Bradford's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.65 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Bradford or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Bradford's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Bradford
2
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crawley Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 0, Crawley Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 January 2024: Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 59%, Crawley Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bradford) and 53% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Crawley Town in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Crawley Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bradford's games and 53% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bradford's recent games and 53% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Bradford's recent matches and 74% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Bradford 2-4 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.32 xG and Crawley Town 0.95 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.76 / defence 0.83 against Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 45% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 26%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 45%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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