Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Barrow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 28 as Barrow welcome Crawley Town to Holker Street. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Barrow — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Barrow have posted 1W 3D 6L at Holker Street — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Barrow at 0.50 PPG versus Crawley Town's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Barrow, 3 for Crawley Town and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Barrow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Barrow in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 46% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 46% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.51 xG and Crawley Town 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.790 / defence 1.268 | Crawley Town attack 0.769 / defence 1.489. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.223. Barrow's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.489 — this is suppressing Barrow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Barrow games / 26 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 45% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 3.33. Barrow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Barrow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barrow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Barrow 50% | Crawley Town 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Holker Street • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 45% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Barrow 1.51 / Crawley Town 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.790 / def 1.268 | Crawley Town attack 0.769 / def 1.489 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Barrow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Crawley Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Crawley Town kick off?
Barrow vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Holker Street.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Barrow 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Barrow vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Holker Street.
What competition is Barrow vs Crawley Town part of?
Barrow vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 45% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Barrow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Barrow and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Crawley Town?
Record (7 meetings): Barrow 3W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 3W.
What form are Barrow and Crawley Town in?
Barrow (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Barrow's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.93
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Barrow xG
Total xG
2.70
1.19
Crawley Town xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Barrow and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Barrow and 1.19 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Barrow have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 21W 20D 30L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 15W 17D 39L from 71 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 1.17 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Barrow have posted 1.31 PPG from 35 outings (12W 10D 13L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 6D 24L from 35 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barrow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 21W 20D 30L in their last 71 games (1.17 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 15W 17D 39L in their last 71 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Crawley Town away?
Barrow's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.31 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Barrow won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Barrow's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Barrow
1
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Barrow have won 3, Crawley Town have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 46%, Crawley Town 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Barrow) and 69% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Barrow have failed to score in 29% of games; Crawley Town in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Barrow's recent matches and 49% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Barrow's matches and 69% of Crawley Town's.
Do Barrow and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Barrow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Barrow 0-1 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.51 xG and Crawley Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Barrow fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Crawley Town attack 0.77 / defence 1.49, drawn from 71/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 45% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 30%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 46%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.17 PPG, Crawley Town 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.