AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 29 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 2.00 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Stockport County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 48% versus Stockport County 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stockport County 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.88 xG and Stockport County 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.832 / defence 0.974 | Stockport County attack 1.131 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.059. Data: 26 AFC Wimbledon games / 25 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Stockport County 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.88 / Stockport County 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.832 / def 0.974 | Stockport County attack 1.131 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stockport County xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 27% chance of winning, Stockport County a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.83) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
27%
3.76
32%
3.13
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.05
1.17
Stockport County xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.17 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 8W 9D 8L from 25 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 9L across 25 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.32 PPG, Stockport County on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 5W 1D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.40 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Stockport County in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 11W 5D 9L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stockport County away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.45 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.45 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stockport County in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
5
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Stockport County have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 46%, Stockport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 46%; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 46% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Stockport County 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.88 xG and Stockport County 1.17 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Stockport County attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Stockport County 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stockport County's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.32 PPG, Stockport County 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.