Accrington ST 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Walsall at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Walsall encounter.

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Analysis

Walsall make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Accrington ST (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Accrington ST have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Walsall have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Walsall have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Walsall arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2024, ended Accrington ST 1–2 Walsall — a Walsall win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 62% and Walsall 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 64% | Walsall 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.33 xG and Walsall 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.065 / defence 1.048 | Walsall attack 1.288 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Walsall have an above-average attack rating of 1.288, which lifts their away xG to 1.70. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 58 games and Walsall's last 58.

Result probabilities: Accrington ST 30% | Draw 24% | Walsall 46%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.33 | Draw 4.22 | Walsall 2.16. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 70% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 50% (last 10 away games).

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