Accrington ST 0-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Notts County at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Notts County.

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Analysis

Notts County make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Accrington ST (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Notts County's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Notts County have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Accrington ST, 1.40 for Notts County — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Notts County in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Accrington ST, 2 for Notts County and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Sep 2024, ended Accrington ST 0–2 Notts County — a Notts County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 62% and Notts County 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 64% | Notts County 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.047 / defence 1.190 | Notts County attack 1.294 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.178. Notts County have an above-average attack rating of 1.294, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 69 games and Notts County's last 70.

Result probabilities: Accrington ST 33% | Draw 24% | Notts County 43%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.00 | Draw 4.16 | Notts County 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 60% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 60% (last 10 away games).

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