Accrington ST 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Gillingham travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.00 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Accrington ST, 3 for Gillingham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Accrington ST winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (81 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gillingham in-play tendencies (81 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 57% versus Gillingham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 59% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.44 xG and Gillingham 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.054 / defence 0.958 | Gillingham attack 0.706 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.086. Data: 82 Accrington ST games / 81 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 54% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 19%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Gillingham 5.26. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Gillingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 54% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Accrington ST 1.44 / Gillingham 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.054 / def 0.958 | Gillingham attack 0.706 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Gillingham xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Gillingham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Accrington ST 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Gillingham part of?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 54% chance of winning, Gillingham a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Accrington ST and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Record (5 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 3W.
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.71
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.17
0.73
Gillingham xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.73 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 81 games, going 25W 18D 38L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.30 PPG from 81 outings (29W 18D 34L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.15 PPG, Gillingham on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 14W 12D 13L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.03 points per game from 39 outings (11W 7D 21L).
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 18D 38L in their last 81 games (1.15 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 29W 18D 34L in their last 81 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Gillingham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.38 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Gillingham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Gillingham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 49%, Gillingham 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Accrington ST) and 33% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 33% of games; Gillingham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 41% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Accrington ST's recent games and 33% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Gillingham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Accrington ST and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.44 xG and Gillingham 0.73 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Gillingham attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 54% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 19%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 59%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.