Accrington ST 0-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Crewe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Crewe at Wham Stadium in League Two (matchday 43). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Accrington ST have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Accrington ST have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crewe — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crewe's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Accrington ST at 0.80 PPG versus Crewe's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Accrington ST have won 2, Crewe 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Accrington ST 3–3 Crewe — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Crewe in-play and half-time data (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 49% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 54% | Crewe 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.03 xG and Crewe 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.795 / defence 1.099 | Crewe attack 1.018 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Accrington ST's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 40 games and Crewe's last 87.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 26% | Draw 28% | Crewe 46%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.82 | Draw 3.54 | Crewe 2.20. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 40% (last 10 home games) | Crewe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, matchday 43 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 26% | Draw 28% | Crewe 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Accrington ST 1.03 / Crewe 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.795 / def 1.099 | Crewe attack 1.018 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Crewe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Crewe xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Crewe FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Crewe kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crewe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crewe part of?
Accrington ST vs Crewe is a League Two fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 26% chance of winning, Crewe a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Accrington ST and Crewe will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Accrington ST vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 40 games and Crewe's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.54
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.47
1.44
Crewe xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.10
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Crewe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.44 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 86 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 25W 19D 42L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Crewe's form line: 31W 28D 27L from 86 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.09 PPG, Crewe on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 42 home games (15W 7D 20L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 9W 17D 16L from their last 42 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.31 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Crewe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Crewe Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Crewe in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 19D 42L in their last 86 games (1.09 PPG), while Crewe have gone 31W 28D 27L in their last 86 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crewe away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.24 PPG; Crewe away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2022, when Accrington ST won Accrington ST 4-1 Crewe.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Crewe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crewe?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 4, Crewe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crewe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Accrington ST 2-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crewe?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 45% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 45%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Accrington ST) and 45% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 33% of games; Crewe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Crewe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Crewe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 50% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Crewe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Accrington ST's recent games and 45% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crewe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 74% of Crewe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Accrington ST and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.03 xG and Crewe 1.44 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Crewe attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 26% | Draw 28% | Crewe 46%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 54%, Crewe 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.09 PPG, Crewe 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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