Wigan 0-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wigan face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wigan welcome Stockport County to The Brick Community Stadium in League One (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wigan have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wigan at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stockport County stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wigan 1.40 PPG, Stockport County 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Wigan, 0 for Stockport County and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Wigan 0–0 Stockport County — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Stockport County trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 47% versus Stockport County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 43% | Stockport County 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Wigan surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Stockport County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.842 / defence 1.091 | Stockport County attack 1.022 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.175. Data: built from Wigan's last 74 games and Stockport County's last 31.
Result probabilities: Wigan 27% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 44%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 3.77 | Draw 3.45 | Stockport County 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wigan 50% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 32 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 27% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Wigan 0.95 / Stockport County 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.842 / def 1.091 | Stockport County attack 1.022 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Stockport County xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Stockport County kick off?
Wigan vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Stockport County?
Wigan 0 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Wigan vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stockport County part of?
Wigan vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 27% chance of winning, Stockport County a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wigan and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Wigan vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wigan's attack rating (0.84) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 74 games and Stockport County's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
27%
3.77
29%
3.45
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.26
1.31
Stockport County xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Wigan and 1.31 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wigan come into this having played 74 games, going 29W 17D 28L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.96 PPG from 74 outings (42W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wigan's home form reads 17W 8D 12L across their last 37 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.70 points per game from their last 37 away games (17W 12D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.91 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
Wigan (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Wigan vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 29W 17D 28L in their last 74 games (1.41 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 42W 19D 13L in their last 74 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.59 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Wigan or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Stockport County have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Sep 2026, when Stockport County won Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Wigan's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Wigan
2
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stockport County?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 0, Stockport County have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 38%, Stockport County 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Wigan) and 60% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Stockport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Wigan's recent matches and 70% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Wigan's recent games and 60% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Wigan's recent matches and 81% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Wigan 0-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.31 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wigan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Stockport County attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 74/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 27% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 44%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 43%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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