Wigan 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wigan welcome Peterborough to DW Stadium in League One (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 7 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wigan have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Wigan have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Peterborough have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Peterborough's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Wigan's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 57% versus Peterborough 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 43% | Peterborough 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.29 xG and Peterborough 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.091 / defence 1.143 | Peterborough attack 1.187 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.155. Data: built from Wigan's last 15 games and Peterborough's last 61.
Result probabilities: Wigan 31% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 44%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 3.21 | Draw 3.95 | Peterborough 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wigan's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 50% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 13 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 31% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Wigan 1.29 / Peterborough 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.091 / def 1.143 | Peterborough attack 1.187 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Peterborough xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Peterborough kick off?
Wigan vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 7 November 2023 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Peterborough?
Wigan 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Wigan vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Peterborough part of?
Wigan vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 31% chance of winning, Peterborough a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wigan and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wigan vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wigan's attack at 1.09x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 15 games and Peterborough's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
31%
3.21
25%
3.95
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.86
1.57
Peterborough xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
15.37
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wigan and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Wigan and 1.57 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wigan's recent record stands at 17W 16D 28L from 61 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 31W 9D 21L across 61 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wigan heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 9W 7D 14L from their last 30 home games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 14W 3D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.62 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
Wigan (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Wigan vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 31W 9D 21L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.13 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Wigan or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Peterborough in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Feb 2026, when Peterborough won Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Wigan's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Wigan
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 4, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Peterborough?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 53%, Peterborough 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wigan) and 53% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Wigan have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wigan's recent matches and 53% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wigan's recent games and 53% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Wigan's recent matches and 67% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Peterborough 2-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.29 xG and Peterborough 1.57 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.09 / defence 1.14 against Peterborough attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 31% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 44%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Wigan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 43%, Peterborough 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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