Wigan 0-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wigan (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wigan face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Brick Community Stadium plays host to Wigan versus AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wigan's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Wigan's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Wigan are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Wigan winning.
The historical record gives Wigan a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wigan — key trading statistics (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 42% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 33% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.878 / defence 0.734 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.807 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.165. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Wigan's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 90 Wigan games / 44 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Wimbledon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 20% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Wigan 1.52 / AFC Wimbledon 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.878 / def 0.734 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.807 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Wigan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.69
AFC Wimbledon xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Wigan 0 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 57% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wigan and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (3 meetings): Wigan 3W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wigan's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.81x) against Wigan's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.87
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.21
0.69
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Wigan and 0.69 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 90 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 27W 31D 32L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 35W 21D 34L from 90 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Wigan against 1.40 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.48 PPG from 44 outings (18W 11D 15L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 13W 12D 19L from 44 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wigan are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 27W 31D 32L in their last 90 games (1.24 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 35W 21D 34L in their last 90 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Wigan's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.48 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Wigan or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
AFC Wimbledon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Wigan
0
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
From 5 meetings on record, Wigan have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 32%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Wigan) and 43% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 36% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Wigan's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Wigan's recent games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Wigan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Wigan 0-1 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wigan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.88 / defence 0.73 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 33%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.24 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.