Sunderland 1-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Portsmouth at Stadium of Light in League One, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light.
Portsmouth — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sunderland at 1.90 PPG versus Portsmouth's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sunderland have won 0, Portsmouth 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 52% versus Portsmouth 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 64% | Portsmouth 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.44 xG and Portsmouth 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.442 / defence 0.938 | Portsmouth attack 0.692 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.236. Sunderland carry an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Sunderland games / 25 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Portsmouth 5.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Portsmouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Sunderland 1.44 / Portsmouth 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.442 / def 0.938 | Portsmouth attack 0.692 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Portsmouth xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Portsmouth kick off?
Sunderland vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Portsmouth?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Sunderland vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Portsmouth part of?
Sunderland vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 51% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sunderland and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Portsmouth?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Portsmouth in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.44) and Portsmouth's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.49
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.24
0.80
Portsmouth xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.80 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 25 games, going 13W 6D 6L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.80 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 9W 1D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (3W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.16 scored and 0.96 conceded. Sunderland's scoring rate against Portsmouth's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 13W 6D 6L in their last 25 games (1.80 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 10W 8D 7L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Portsmouth away?
Sunderland's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.33 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Portsmouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sunderland go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2021, when Portsmouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sunderland
0
Draws
1
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Portsmouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 3, Portsmouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 5 January 2025, when Sunderland 1-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Portsmouth?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 42%, Portsmouth 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sunderland) and 42% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Portsmouth in 50%; Portsmouth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sunderland's recent matches and 33% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sunderland's recent games and 42% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Portsmouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.44 xG and Portsmouth 0.80 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.44 / defence 0.94 against Portsmouth attack 0.69 / defence 0.89, drawn from 27/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 51% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 64%, Portsmouth 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Portsmouth's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.80 PPG, Portsmouth 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.