Sunderland 1-3 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Lincoln at Stadium of Light in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 11 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 League One matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light.
Lincoln — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sunderland are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Lincoln 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 65% | Lincoln 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 2.19 xG and Lincoln 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.540 / defence 0.732 | Lincoln attack 0.792 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.276. Sunderland carry an above-average attack strength of 1.540 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lincoln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sunderland's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Sunderland games / 23 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 70% | Draw 19% | Lincoln 11%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Lincoln 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | Lincoln 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 70% | Draw 19% | Lincoln 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 47% | xG Sunderland 2.19 / Lincoln 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.540 / def 0.732 | Lincoln attack 0.792 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Lincoln xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Lincoln kick off?
Sunderland vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 January 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Lincoln?
Sunderland 1 - 3 Lincoln.
Where is Sunderland vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Lincoln part of?
Sunderland vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 70% chance of winning, Lincoln a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sunderland and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Lincoln in?
Sunderland (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.54) and Lincoln's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
70%
1.42
19%
5.30
11%
9.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.93
0.74
Lincoln xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
9.23
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
82.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.74 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 23 games, going 13W 5D 5L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Lincoln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 9W 1D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 23 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 games (1.91 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Lincoln away?
Sunderland's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.55 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lincoln in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Lincoln runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Lincoln?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 0, Lincoln have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Lincoln 0-0 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 36%, Lincoln 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sunderland) and 46% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sunderland's recent matches and 64% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sunderland's recent games and 46% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Lincoln tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Sunderland 1-3 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.19 xG and Lincoln 0.74 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lincoln outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.54 / defence 0.73 against Lincoln attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 25/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 70% | Draw 19% | Lincoln 11%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Lincoln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 65%, Lincoln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Lincoln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.