Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One, Semi-finals. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Stockport County against 1.80 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 3W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (93 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (93 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.77 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.177 / defence 0.972 | Stevenage attack 0.731 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Data: 92 Stockport County games / 92 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Stevenage 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Stevenage 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Semi-finals | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Stockport County 1.77 / Stevenage 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.177 / def 0.972 | Stevenage attack 0.731 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stevenage xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Stevenage kick off?
Stockport County vs Stevenage kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Stockport County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Stevenage part of?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is a Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 58% chance of winning, Stevenage a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stockport County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
Record (7 meetings): Stockport County 3W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 4W.
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.18) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.73x) against Stockport County's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 92/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.32
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.65
0.88
Stevenage xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
31.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.88 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 93 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 46W 25D 22L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 36W 24D 33L from 93 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Stockport County against 1.42 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.02 PPG from 46 outings (28W 9D 9L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 13W 12D 21L from 46 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 93 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 46W 25D 22L in their last 93 games (1.75 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 36W 24D 33L in their last 93 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Stevenage away?
Stockport County's home record (2.02 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.02 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stevenage in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 59%, Stevenage 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Stockport County) and 37% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stevenage in 35%; Stevenage in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Stockport County's recent matches and 41% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Stockport County's recent games and 37% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Stevenage 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.77 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.75 PPG, Stevenage 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.