Stockport County 1-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Stockport County's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mansfield Town's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Mansfield Town have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Stockport County's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mansfield Town have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 54% versus Mansfield Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 52% | Mansfield Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.30 xG and Mansfield Town 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.114 / defence 0.986 | Mansfield Town attack 0.923 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.174. Data: 24 Stockport County games / 22 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 42% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Mansfield Town 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Mansfield Town lead the H2H ledger, but Stockport County carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 42% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stockport County 1.30 / Mansfield Town 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.114 / def 0.986 | Mansfield Town attack 0.923 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mansfield Town xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Stockport County 1 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 42% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stockport County and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Record (5 meetings): Stockport County 0W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.92x) against Stockport County's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 24/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.62
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.37
1.07
Mansfield Town xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.07 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 37W 19D 12L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town's form line: 34W 18D 16L from 68 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for Stockport County against 1.76 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.18 PPG from 34 outings (22W 8D 4L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 16W 8D 10L from 34 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.75 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 62%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 37W 19D 12L in their last 68 games (1.91 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 34W 18D 16L in their last 68 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stockport County's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.18 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stockport County
2
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 38%, Mansfield Town 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stockport County) and 59% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stockport County's recent matches and 65% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stockport County's recent games and 59% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.30 xG and Mansfield Town 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Mansfield Town attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 24/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 42% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 31%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 52%, Mansfield Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.91 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.