Stockport County 2-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stockport County's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crawley Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Stockport County against 1.00 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Stockport County 1W, Crawley Town 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 53% | Crawley Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.18 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.096 / defence 1.060 | Crawley Town attack 0.876 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.179. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.587 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Stockport County games / 24 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 62% | Draw 20% | Crawley Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Crawley Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 50% | Crawley Town 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 62% | Draw 20% | Crawley Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Stockport County 2.18 / Crawley Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.096 / def 1.060 | Crawley Town attack 0.876 / def 1.587 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Crawley Town xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Crawley Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Crawley Town?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Crawley Town part of?
Stockport County vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 62% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stockport County and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Crawley Town?
Record (5 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Crawley Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.88x) against Stockport County's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
62%
1.62
20%
4.91
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.28
1.10
Crawley Town xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
49.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.10 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stockport County's recent record stands at 38W 19D 15L from 72 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 31L across 72 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 22W 8D 6L from 36 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 13W 6D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.49 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 38W 19D 15L in their last 72 games (1.85 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 28W 13D 31L in their last 72 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Crawley Town away?
Stockport County's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.06 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stockport County
3
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Crawley Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Stockport County 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Crawley Town?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 39%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stockport County) and 61% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Crawley Town in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stockport County's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stockport County's recent games and 61% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Crawley Town 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.18 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.59, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 62% | Draw 20% | Crawley Town 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 53%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.