Stevenage 1-0 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 48%, yet in-form Wrexham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Wrexham at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Wrexham have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wrexham — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Wrexham in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Wrexham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Wrexham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.12 xG and Wrexham 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.004 / defence 0.650 | Wrexham attack 0.687 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.264. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Stevenage games / 8 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 48% | Draw 35% | Wrexham 17%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | Wrexham 5.88. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Wrexham's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wrexham (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Wrexham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Wrexham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 48% | Draw 35% | Wrexham 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG Stevenage 1.12 / Wrexham 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.004 / def 0.650 | Wrexham attack 0.687 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Wrexham xG
30%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Wrexham kick off?
Stevenage vs Wrexham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Wrexham?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Wrexham.
Where is Stevenage vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Wrexham part of?
Stevenage vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 48% chance of winning, Wrexham a 17% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Stevenage and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wrexham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Wrexham in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Wrexham (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.00x the league average against Wrexham's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.3%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
48%
2.08
35%
2.87
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.69
0.56
Wrexham xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.28
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.8 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.56 for Wrexham, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 54 games, going 22W 16D 16L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wrexham sit at 1.94 PPG from 54 outings (31W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Stevenage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Wrexham have taken 1.44 points per game from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.91 scored and 1.07 conceded. Wrexham's attacking output running into Stevenage's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Wrexham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 31W 12D 11L in their last 54 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Wrexham away?
Stevenage's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.74 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Wrexham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Wrexham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Stevenage
0
Draws
0
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wrexham?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Wrexham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Wrexham 2-3 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Wrexham?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 37%, Wrexham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Stevenage) and 37% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Wrexham in 33%; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games; Wrexham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Stevenage's recent matches and 48% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Stevenage's recent games and 37% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Wrexham tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Wrexham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Wrexham 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.12 xG and Wrexham 0.56 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.00 / defence 0.65 against Wrexham attack 0.69 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 48% | Draw 35% | Wrexham 17%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Wrexham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wrexham's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.