Stevenage 1-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 46 sees Wigan travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Wigan have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.80 (Wigan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stevenage, 1 for Wigan and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wigan trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Wigan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 36% | Wigan 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.50 xG and Wigan 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.896 / defence 0.710 | Wigan attack 0.936 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.177. Wigan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 91 Stevenage games / 91 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 26% | Wigan 19%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Wigan 5.26. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Wigan 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 26% | Wigan 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Stevenage 1.50 / Wigan 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.896 / def 0.710 | Wigan attack 0.936 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Wigan xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Wigan kick off?
Stevenage vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Stevenage vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Wigan part of?
Stevenage vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 54% chance of winning, Wigan a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stevenage and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wigan?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 2 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Wigan in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Wigan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.83
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.29
0.78
Wigan xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
23.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.78 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 91 games, going 35W 24D 32L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.23 PPG from 91 outings (27W 31D 33L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.42 PPG, Wigan on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 22W 12D 11L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.04 points per game from 45 outings (9W 20D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.98 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 35W 24D 32L in their last 91 games (1.42 PPG), while Wigan have gone 27W 31D 33L in their last 91 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Wigan away?
Stevenage's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.73 PPG; Wigan away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wigan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Wigan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Wigan have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Wigan?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Wigan 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 36% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wigan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 53% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 36% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Wigan tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Wigan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Wigan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Wigan 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.50 xG and Wigan 0.78 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.90 / defence 0.71 against Wigan attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 54% | Draw 26% | Wigan 19%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Wigan 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wigan's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.42 PPG, Wigan 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.