Stevenage 1-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 36%, yet in-form Peterborough provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Peterborough meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 3W 6D 1L at Lamex Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Peterborough are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Stevenage 1W, Peterborough 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 35% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.09 xG and Peterborough 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.784 / defence 0.849 | Peterborough attack 1.137 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.106. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Stevenage games / 73 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Peterborough 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Peterborough (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 50% | Peterborough 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stevenage 1.09 / Peterborough 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.784 / def 0.849 | Peterborough attack 1.137 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Peterborough xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Peterborough kick off?
Stevenage vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Stevenage vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Peterborough part of?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 36% chance of winning, Peterborough a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stevenage and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 2 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Peterborough (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.14x) against Stevenage's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.39
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.16
1.07
Peterborough xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.07 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 25W 21D 26L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 25W 14D 33L from 72 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Stevenage against 1.24 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (14W 11D 10L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 10W 5D 20L from 35 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 61%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 25W 14D 33L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Peterborough away?
Stevenage's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.51 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Peterborough in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Peterborough 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Stevenage) and 63% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 63% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Stevenage's recent games and 63% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Peterborough tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Peterborough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Peterborough 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.09 xG and Peterborough 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against Peterborough attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 35%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.33 PPG, Peterborough 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.