Stevenage 3-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stevenage face Northampton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Northampton travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage in League One (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stevenage stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stevenage at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Northampton — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Northampton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.70 (Northampton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Stevenage, 3 for Northampton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Stevenage 1–0 Northampton — a Stevenage win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Northampton in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 41% | Northampton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.40 xG and Northampton 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.872 / defence 1.005 | Northampton attack 0.903 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.140. Data: built from Stevenage's last 23 games and Northampton's last 22.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 29% | Northampton 27%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.25 | Draw 3.45 | Northampton 3.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stevenage 60% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Northampton | Competition: League One, matchday 24 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 29% | Northampton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Stevenage 1.40 / Northampton 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.872 / def 1.005 | Northampton attack 0.903 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Northampton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Northampton FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Northampton kick off?
Stevenage vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Stevenage 3 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Stevenage vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Northampton part of?
Stevenage vs Northampton is a League One fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 44% chance of winning, Northampton a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Northampton will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Stevenage vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.87x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 23 games and Northampton's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.45
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Northampton xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Northampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.03 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 34W 20D 14L from 68 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 19L across 68 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.79 PPG, Northampton on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 20W 8D 5L from their last 33 home games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 14W 9D 10L across their last 33 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.32 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Northampton
Blended
Stevenage (Home) vs Northampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Stevenage vs Northampton Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 34W 20D 14L in their last 68 games (1.79 PPG), while Northampton have gone 32W 17D 19L in their last 68 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Northampton away?
Stevenage's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.06 PPG; Northampton away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Northampton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won Northampton 3-0 Stevenage.
Stevenage's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stevenage
2
Draws
4
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Northampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 4, Northampton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Northampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Northampton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 42% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Northampton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Northampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Northampton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Northampton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 42% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Northampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Stevenage's recent matches and 67% of Northampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stevenage run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Northampton 3-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.40 xG and Northampton 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Northampton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Northampton attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 29% | Northampton 27%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 41%, Northampton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.79 PPG, Northampton 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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